Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900–2013

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006–2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.     

Potential of IRNSS/NavIC L5 signals for ionospheric studies

Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) has developed an indigenous system named Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) or NavIC (Navigation with Indian Constellation), that consists of 7 satellites and transmits navigation signal in L and S bands. ISRO, for validation of the system, has installed many IGS (IRNSS/GPS/SBAS) receivers scattered over the Indian region. Using preliminary data from two geographically widely separated stations over India, this paper presents the results on studies on parameters of IRNSS signal quality and discusses how these parameters may be used to study the ionospheric behavior over the Indian region. The results show the importance and advantages of using IRNSS data for such studies.     

Diurnal and seasonal variations in long-term changes in the E-layer critical frequency

Long-term changes in the E-layer critical frequency, foE, at three stations of the European region (Juliusruh, Slough and Rome) and also at Moscow and Wakkanai stations are analyzed by the method developed by the authors and described in detail in the previous papers. It is found that Juliusruh and Slough stations demonstrate a well-pronounced change in foE (a trend) during two previous decades. At the same time, the same features of the behavior of the aforementioned trend k(foE) are obtained. The trend is positive and negative in the morning and evening hours, respectively. Similar diurnal behavior of k(foE) is found also for Moscow station but with lower absolute values of the trends. A well-pronounced seasonal behavior of k(foE) is detected at Juliusruh and Slough: the trend is minimal and maximal in the summer period and at the end of fall—beginning of winter, respectively. The maximal amplitude in the morning hours reaches +0.04?MHz per year, whereas the minimal amplitude in evening hours is ?0.06?MHz per year. No systematic changes exceeding by the magnitude 0.01?MHz per year are found for Rome and Wakkanai stations. It is assumed that the observed trends are related to changes (trends) in the meridional wind bringing NO molecules from the auroral oval to lower latitudes.     

Erratum to: Use of the DBM Model to the Predict of Arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections to the Earth

Cosmic Research - An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952521120017     

Erratum to: Determination of the Probability of Collision of Near-Earth Space Objects Taking into Account Form and Orientation

Cosmic Research - An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952521120030     

A regional tropospheric model for airborne GPS applications

A regional tropospheric model can be constructed using surveys from GPS ground networks. Using this model the tropospheric delays of a kinematic station within the region can be interpolated. However, such a model is generally not suitable for an airborne platform high above the ground networks. In this paper, a method of constructing a regional tropospheric model for airborne GPS applications is described. First, the kinematic station in the air is projected onto the ground. Then the tropospheric delays at projected point are interpolated from those of the ground networks. Finally, the tropospheric delays at projected point are extended upward to the airborne platform using pressure and temperature gradients and humidity exponential function. For validation of this method, the data of airborne campaign carried out by BKG in cooperation with GFZ and BGR 2008 in the northern Alps are used. The results show that GPS kinematic positioning precision in height component can be improved using this method.     

On the stability of stationary motions of a system of coaxial bodies

We consider the stability of stationary motions of a model of a spacecraft as a system of coaxial bodies with small asymmetry caused by the shift of the axes of dynamic symmetry of bodies relative to the axis of rotation. We determine the stationary motions of the system; their stability is studied with respect to both the projections of angular velocity and the position of the axis of rotation. The sufficient conditions for the stability of these stationary motions are obtained by constructing a Lyapunov function, and the necessary conditions are obtained by analyzing the corresponding linearized equations of perturbed motion.     

Study of thin-walled parts shaping process based on flanging and embossing

This paper presents the results of analyzing the shaping of thin-walled conical parts with the uniform thickness along generatrix.     

A data-driven approach to modeling high-density terminal areas: A scenario analysis of the new Beijing,China airspace

Airports are being developed and expanded rapidly in China to accommodate and pro-mote a growing aviation market. The future Beijing Daxing International Airport (DAX) will serve as the central airport of the JingJinJi megaregion, knitting the Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei regions together. DAX will be a busy airport from its inception, relieving congestion and accommodating growth from Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK), currently the second busiest airport in the world in passengers moved. We aim to model terminal airspace designs and possible conflicts in the future Beijing Multi-Airport System (MAS). We investigate standard arrival procedures and mathematically model current and future arrival trajectories into PEK and DAX by collecting large quantities of publicly available track data from historical arrivals operating within the Beijing terminal airspace. We find that (1) trajectory models constructed from real data capture aberrations and deviations from standard arrival procedures, validating the need to incorporate data on histor-ical trajectories with standard procedures when evaluating the airspace and (2) given all existing constraints, DAX may be restricted to using north and east arrival flows, constraining the capacity required to handle the increases in air traffic demand to Beijing. The results indicate that the termi-nal airspace above Beijing, and the future JingJinJi region, requires careful consideration if the full capacity benefits of the two major airports are to be realized.